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Licht-Eggert, K., Kannen, A., Ahrendt, K., Burkhard, B., Bruns, A., Diembeck, D., Gee, K., Glaeser, B., Grimm, B., Köhn, J., Michler, T., Nunneri, C., Stragies, S., Windhorst, W.. Szenarien über mögliche Zukünfte der Nordseeküste bis 2055 â Herangehensweise und methodische Gesichtspunkte mit Schwerpunkt auf sozioökonomischen Aspekten. In: Gönnert, G., Pflüger, B., Bremer, J.-A. (eds.). Von der Geoarchäologie über die Küstendynamik zum Küstenzonenmanagement. Coastline Reports (9), pp. 207-216. EUCC - The Coastal Union, Leiden, 2007.

Zusammenfassung:

Using the German North Sea coast and large scale development plans for offshore wind farms as examples for changing use patterns, the article describes the scenario approach used in the BMBF funded research project “Zukunft Kueste – Coastal Futures” as a tool for an integrated assessment of potential coastal developments. The approach examines a range of different scenarios or pathways for future development of the German North Sea region in order to frame potentially associated changes in marine use patterns. These include (a) sea and coast as a predominantly  natural area, (b) sea and coast as a leisure and tourism area, (c) sea and coast as a source for renewable energies, (d) sea and coast as an predominantly industrial area and (e) sea and coast as a traffic area. The scenarios are based on the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR)- model. Purpose of the scenarios is to describe the consequences related to different sea use patterns in terms of regional development, socio-economic structure and social infrastructure in coastal areas and ecosystem impacts in the sea. The article focusses on the scenario development and criteria to assess related economic and social impacts.

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