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Röber, B., Rudolphi, H.. Impacts of sea level changes on coastal regions - a local study for SEAREG. In: Schernewski, G., Löser, N. (eds.). BaltCoast 2004 - Managing the Baltic Sea. Coastline Reports (2), pp. 185-194. 2004.

Zusammenfassung:

SEAREG analyses socio-economic and environmental effects of climate and sea level changes in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR). The result of the project will be a decision support frame which is addressed to planning authorities. Within the project, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) develops scenarios of future climate and sea level for the year 2100 which will then be connected with regional data. These are morphological data for calculating the coastal dynamics and an elevation model to search for flood-prone areas. Coastal dynamics was estimated for the next 100 years, considering the island of Usedom as an example. The changes of the historical shoreline of Usedom were determined by maps and aerial photographs from the year 1825 up to now. The results show an abrasion of 216 metres at Streckelsberg and an accumulation up to 185 metres at Ahlbeck in the last 175 years. Future coast lines were calculated with the model of Wagner (1999). Data of the different SMHI climate scenarios were used for this calculation. A high resolution elevation model of the Island of Usedom was generated to estimate flood-prone areas depending on different sea level rise scenarios. The potential flood-prone areas was intersected with economical and ecological data sets. Two types of results were produced for the planning authorities, firstly maps and tables showing the affected economical and ecological areas and, secondly, a classification map of the affected areas to establish a priority list of actions.

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