Staudt, M., Kallio, H., Schmidt-Thomé, P.. Modelling a future sea level change scenario affecting the spatial development in the Baltic Sea Region - First results of the SEAREG project. In: Schernewski, G., Löser, N. (eds.). BaltCoast 2004 - Managing the Baltic Sea. Coastline Reports (2), pp. 195-199. 2004.

This article summarizes the first results of the Interreg IIIB project "Sea Level Change Affecting the Spatial Development of the Baltic Sea Region" (SEAREG). The effects of climate change scenarios have been widely discussed in public and within the scientific community in recent years. The SEAREG project addresses socio-economic and environmental aspects of sea level rise in the Baltic Sea region (BSR) by finding appropriate applications of climate modelling in local and regional planning systems. A rise of the sea level might lead to major flooding events, having severe impacts on the spatial development of cities and regions of the BSR. One basic task in the SEAREG project is to outline the major impact zones caused by sea level rise in the Baltic Sea region by using GIS-based methods. Ocean model and land uplift rate are factors that must be taken into account in addressing flood prone areas. The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) utilized two emission scenarios (A2 and B2) by IPCC to calculate the RCAO model (Rossby Centre Atmosphere Ocean model). Superimposing this ocean model with a digital elevation model as well as land use data, the effects and spatial extent of sea level change can be evaluated. The results are grid based cartographic presentations showing estimates of sea level changes 100 years after present. In cooperation with spatial planners the e project is developing a Decision Support Frame (DSF) for impact and vulnerability assessment. The DSF will address  planning authorities, decision makers and stakeholders in the case study areas and in the BSR cooperation on spatial planning in general.