PIONEER: Preparation and Integration of Analysis Tools towards Operational Forecast of Nutrients in Estuaries of European Rivers

The basic information about the PIONEER project.

PIONEER will set up analysis systems for routine day-to-day monitoring, analysis and short-term prediction of nutrient distributions in the Odra and Ebro estuaries. The project integrates presently available technology and methodology in data management, geostatistical and dynamical data assimilation and numerical modelling in co-operation between scientific institutions, management authorities and commercial companies.

The overall approach of PIONEER parallels the analysis in weather forecasting. Point observations together with a "best guess" are processed in a data assimilation scheme. Since data assimilation with respect to nutrients is a new application three schemes of increasing complexity will be explored: simple spatial interpolation, geostatistics and dynamical data assimilation. As a by-product, the project will offer estimates of the predictability of the estuarine ecosystems on time scales of days and weeks.

The systems developed by PIONEER include:

• state-of-the-art data assimilation schemes to determine the actual spatial and temporal distribution of nutrients and parameters such as suspended sediment concentrations and phytoplankton biomass.
  
• dynamical models to forecast temporal and spatial evolution of nutrient concentrations and phytoplankton biomass for several days and weeks.
  
• data management systems for long-term storage and fast exchange.
  

The application of the methodologies and future steps towards an operational mode of the forecasting system will be discussed with the responsibles from politics, coastal zone management and tourism organisations in regional meetings. The project is a significant contribution to EuroGOOS that has strong emphasis in creating cost efficient operational forecasting tools.